Derby Fever has hit. Full stride, actually. It should be enough to melt whats left of the ice storm in Kentucky, including Capt. Candyman Can (pictured) in his most recent victory, one that I liked.
This week features a some awesome races, with the reaturn of some notable racers. So, we'll start with a list:
Risen Star: Not usually a great race in prep for the TC. Take Notional for example. But he turned into something later, as an older horse, so we may see that again. Notable names here are Giant Oak, Freisan Fire, and Indygo Mountain. Giant Oak's runner-up effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a gutty one, but right now, my money would be on Freisan Fire. Not only am I a HUGE Larry Jones fan, but this colt looked really pumped in his last start, and there's not a reason to believe that Larry won't keep him pumped. Is he a top TC contender? Not yet. We'll see after tommorrow. And keep Indygo Mountain in mind. Not sure why, but he interests me.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes: Keep in mind that Great Hunter won this race before, and now he can't win an allowance race. Not hatin' on 'Hunter, but it's the truth. Pioneerof the Nile is certainly the one to beat, but I don't love him yet. Let him win tommorrow, and he gets some of my support. He's been fast in the mornings, but Old Fashioned bests him. I Want Revenge is looking for it, as is Bittel Road, and I prefer 'Bit. Keep in mind Brother Keith and Charlie's Moment. Both are looking for the right time to make their move. This one is a bit wide open. 'Nile is the obvious choice, but sometimes, that's not the smart choice.
Las Virgenes: Stardom Bound. Yes, I am going against the grain of reality, and voting for the champion filly. Recent years tell us that champion two year olds sometimes peak at two (Dreaming of Anna for example) and don't fare well in the TC, although they usually pick up later. If you want a longshot, I'd go with Sauncy Evening or African Skies.
Injuries Update: Both Saratoga Sinner (winner of the Holy Bull Stakes last weekend) and Square Eddie are out: Saratoga with a bone chip and Eddie with a sore shin. Didn't see much in Saratoga, but I like Eddie, even if he was a bit overrated. But he never gave up, and I'm sad that we won't get to see what else he can do for a while.
Works: Patena, the recent IEAH purchase who is 'overthrowing' Stardom Bound, is going to head into the La. Derby, while Old Fashioned continues to scare the holy crap out of everyone with his sizzling workouts. Can't wait for him to run in the Southwest Stakes next weekend.
Off the trail...
We skip to the San Antonio Handicap, where Well Armed and Tiago are set to clash, along with Champ Elysees, who needs to make a big move to stay in the stakes picture. Not sure what happened to Well Armed in the BC, but he's still one to watch and one that I like. Tiago is still my favorite, as he has been for years. I'm looking for a win from my boy, with Well Armed in for second. He ran so well in the Classic against Curlin, that I think he's shaping up to be great.
- pm06
